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Dissing Dean
May 2004 - In January, Presidential hopeful Howard Dean was spun on his heels. One moment, he was staring out from the magazine racks and dominating news coverage, the next, he was humiliated and ignored by the media, abandoned by the electorate. In the fall, the fringe candidate had the attention of national and international press. The reason was simple — his tactics had Democrats and Republicans running scared for their strategy rooms. Dean's so-called "secret weapon?" Us — youth and twenty somethings! However, when we walked into the polls to cast our votes, we didn't vote for Dean. Was the fervor just overblown media hype? Or did we make sophisticated and calculated decisions behind those curtains? Dean told crowds, "You have the power to change this country, not me. You have the power!" This message struck a chord on college campuses. College students, in particular, identified with the Vermont governor's rallying cry "Take back America." His stances, to many, were a "breath of fresh air", particularly to more liberal minded students. Dean's "Raise the Roots," get-out-the-youth-vote campaign had well over 700 chapters operating all over the country by October, many on college campuses. The under-30 'Dean Generation' fund-raised a surprising 25-percent of the candidate's total campaign contributions. However, in the end, they couldn't get even 25-percent of the Democratic electorate to cast a vote for the doctor-turned-politician, with the exception of four states, including his home state, Vermont. In exit polls (CNN.com), the choices of 18 to 29 year olds have tracked closely to all other age groups. Although Dean has garnered more votes from 18 to 29s (as a percentage of the total cast within age group) than from any other age group alone, only in New Hampshire did Dean receive a higher percentage of the youth vote than Kerry. In nearly all states, Kerry's fraction of the youth vote outdistanced Dean's by up to 10 times, as was the case in Massachusetts. Edwards, in many states, received greater support from youth than Dean. There were only five states in which the percentage of 18 to 29s who voted for Dean topped 25-percent. What the hell happened? In the fall, Dean was touted for having reinvigorated the spirit of democracy and perception of political efficacy among the most depoliticized, us. The Christian Science Monitor reported in February that there has been, in fact, a considerable rise in the number of youth voters coming to polls this presidential primary. So Dean got-out-the-vote, why did he have to throw in the gloves? A pattern is emerging from exit polls that holds true for all age groups. "Anybody but Bush" (CNN.com 3/19/03). Electability trumped ideology. Students, who still don't think Kerry is "the real deal," are joining the majority to support him — most tacitly, some with the gusto they showed for other candidates.
With Howard Dean sidelined, can Kerry and the Democrats keep students on their side? Last October, Harvard University, Institute of Politics released the results of its Spring Survey. The authors of the final report named "Campus Kids" this election's swing vote. The study debunked three myths about 18- 24 year old voters: 1) we don't vote, 2) we're not engaged and, 3) we're all democrats. What makes us a swing vote? Youth and twenty-somethings have become more moderate, leaning left on social issues and right on economic issues. Can Kerry capitalize on the energy and mobilization of the Dean Campaign? Will a Gen-Kerry movement sweep our campuses? These questions remain unanswered. However, on The Daily Show last month, the Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie told host John Stewart that the GOP was targeting Hispanic and senior women voters. Will GOP tactics distract Kerry? If so, the 18 to 29 camp may return to indignation and self-imposed disenfranchisement. Or worse, we may vote for spoiler Ralph Nader again. The Democratic Party cannot afford to lose our vote or our energy — they'll lose the election without us. |
Why college students ditched the loud lefty from Vermont
When Gen-X and Gen-Y closed the curtains and looked at the levers, they thought polls and pundits and parents; they asked, who is really going to win this thing? Rather than voting for the loud lefty from Vermont, they voted for the moderate veteran from Massachusetts or the moderate optimist from the Carolinas. With an end goal of 'regime change' at home, ideology took a back seat to calculated electability.